Lewis Hamilton could only manage third on the grid at the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix, with Ferrari teammate Charles Leclerc in fourth as Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli set pole position.
Following the complete dominance of Ferrari on Friday, Saturday in Monaco proved to be less than ideal.
Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari fall short of Monaco Grand Prix pole position
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Expectations for both Ferrari drivers were high, but with the sudden emergence of Antonelli and Max Verstappen, Ferrari once again missed out on a front row in qualifying.
Whether Hamilton could have achieved a better result in the Principality is what we aim to uncover with the help of telemetry data.
Even before the start of the race weekend, we could have assumed that Ferrari would be very fast in Monaco and that it had a very real chance of breaking Mercedes’ winning streak this season.
The lack of long straights simply puts engine power into the background, while the drivers’ ability to find grip on the track and drive on the absolute limit is back in focus.
Lewis Hamilton vs Charles Leclerc: Ferrari head-to-head stats for F1 2026 season
F1 2026: Head-to-head qualifying statistics between teammates
F1 2026: Head-to-head race statistics between teammates
This theory was proven correct as early as Friday after the first two free practice sessions; Hamilton and Leclerc locked out the top two positions in both cases, which was more than enough for Ferrari fans to raise their expectations to the maximum.
Hamilton was fantastic in the slower corners, especially in the section from Casino to Portier, as well as at both chicanes on the track.
On the other hand, Leclerc failed to string together a perfect lap, making more mistakes than usual, but the pace was certainly there; the only thing missing was hooking up his fast sectors into a single lap.
Another thing we could conclude from Friday’s free practice was that Ferrari, for some reason, were struggling on the soft tyres, unable to bring them into the optimal temperature window.
By FP3, the situation on track changed, even though Hamilton stated after qualifying that no major overnight setup changes were made to the car.
Leclerc was really struggling in the braking zones on track, losing massive time here, while Hamilton was slower in the Massenet and Casino section.
However, the deficit seemed even larger precisely because of the massive jump Mercedes made overnight.
It appears they had a much more conservative opening two practice sessions and saved their performance for Saturday, when it matters most.
Antonelli was absolutely fantastic under braking into the Nouvelle Chicane and, in this spot alone, he managed to make up about 0.2 seconds compared to the rest.
His confidence through the kerbs in the chicanes and his precision were at a truly enviable level.
On top of all that, Verstappen threw himself into the mix – someone you can absolutely never write off when it comes to qualifying in Monaco.
If we compare the telemetry data of Hamilton’s and Antonelli’s fastest Q3 laps, we will see that the characteristics from FP3 repeat themselves.
Specifically, Hamilton loses the most time in T3 and T4, around 0.15 seconds.
The Briton has a different driving style through this complex of corners compared to Antonelli and Verstappen.
On entry to T3, he brakes and lifts off the throttle earlier, while trying to be faster on throttle application on the exit of T4.
Through the slow-corner sector in Monaco, he remains pretty much on par with the Italian, while at Portier he recovers time, thus remaining in the hunt for pole through the famous tunnel.
However, as we have already said, Kimi was truly fantastic under braking into the Nouvelle Chicane and on another level compared to everyone else.
The Mercedes driver makes a difference here that will remain more or less a constant until the end of the lap.
Hamilton would be better through Piscina 2, while Antonelli was better through Rascasse, but in the end, the gap remained large enough for the Italian’s pole position.
Was front row within reach for Lewis Hamilton?
Looking at the ideal qualifying laps, we can see that Hamilton, like most other drivers, truly extracted everything available from the car.
He hooked up his best three sectors into the same lap, but it simply wasn’t enough.
Could he have reached P2?
Although the gap to Verstappen was almost the same as to Antonelli, looking at the telemetry data can give the false impression that the Briton was closer than he actually was.
Comparing Verstappen and Hamilton, we can see that Lewis once again paid the heaviest price in the opening sector of the track, after which he trailed the Dutchman by about 0.3 seconds.
However, he drove phenomenally through the middle sector, especially in Nouvelle and Portier.
On the exit of Piscina 2, Lewis actually had a better time compared to Max, but the final two corners decided it.
Through T18, Max was absolutely fantastic. And had Antonelli not carried better speed onto the start-finish straight, Verstappen would have been on pole position.
In the end, what we can conclude is that the answer is ‘yes’ – Ferrari could certainly have made it onto at least the front row in Monaco.
Are the drivers to blame? Absolutely not.
Both Lewis and Leclerc extracted the absolute maximum from the SF-26, and it seems that the deciding factor this time was the superior Friday-to-Saturday adaptation of the other teams, specifically Red Bull and Mercedes.
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