With the driver silly season now in full flow, it appears two drivers hold the keys to a domino effect across several teams: Max Verstappen and Fernando Alonso.
The two F1 World Champions are yet to decide their futures and, in the meantime, several other potential moves appear to be on hold.
Max Verstappen and Fernando Alonso decisions could reshape 2027 grid
Want more PlanetF1.com coverage? Add us as a preferred source on Google to your favourites list for news you can trust.
The potential ripple effect of what may occur if Verstappen or Alonso decide on revolution for 2027 is becoming a little clearer as the European summer season ticks ever closer to its shutdown.
Indeed, the summer break could be the checkpoint at which many of the puzzle pieces fall into place.
Verstappen’s exit clause, which is understood to be able to be triggered if he is outside the top two by the Hungarian Grand Prix, may allow him to effectively become a ‘free agent’ for 2027, despite holding a contract until the end of ’28, which changes the complexion of discussions he may have with rival teams going forward.
But where could he go? The Mercedes door can only be said to be ajar now, rather than fully open, given the discovery of Antonelli paying dividends for Toto Wolff’s team, while George Russell reassured British media on Thursday in Austria that, while there won’t be any announcement this weekend, he is set to remain at Mercedes next year – not a huge surprise, given his existing deal was understood to be a 1+1 and he is likely hitting the required performance metrics to trigger the option.
McLaren rumours refuse to go away too but, aside from the prospect of reuniting with GianPiero Lambiase, does McLaren represent a better option, even if a speculated swap deal with Oscar Piastri can be arranged? After all, McLaren, unlike Red Bull, is a customer team of Mercedes and, as recently as six months ago, Toto Wolff spoke of the “enemy in the house” that the Woking team represents to Mercedes. With the Brixworth manufacturer apparently eager to reduce its customer supply by one team for the next rules cycle, wouldn’t that suggest McLaren is the most likely, given it’s the team that’s proven able to beat Merc with its own power unit?
As for Ferrari, Charles Leclerc has just received another contract extension and, right now, the Scuderia’s faith that the ‘real’ Lewis Hamilton is still present is being rewarded.
With Raymond Vermeulen speaking of the Verstappen camp’s desire to remain loyal to Red Bull, it appears that his options to go elsewhere are limited, unless Wolff does decide to unceremoniously show Russell the door, but sources have suggested Verstappen may need to accept a reasonable pay cut even if Mercedes was somehow to play out.
Verstappen’s ongoing participation with Red Bull is also said to be the key to Red Bull’s entire drive line-up: if he stays, both Red Bull teams are very likely to remain as is: Isack Hadjar’s position is said to be secure, while recent speculation suggesting that Nikola Tsolov is assured of a seat at Racing Bulls for next season has been widely dismissed as off the mark.
With Helmut Marko out of the picture, the desire to churn through junior talent in search of a driver expected to perform at an elite level right from the off is said to have greatly diminished, and it’s understood that Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad are both performing at a level that would assure them of 2027.
But what if Verstappen does leave? Depending on where he ends up, most likely either Mercedes or McLaren, this would open up the door for a Red Bull seat for Russell or Piastri, should it be a case of a relatively straightforward swap, but another potential is that of Carlos Sainz.
The Spaniard has made it very clear that he will take the next few weeks to communicate with Williams on the long-term direction of James Vowles’ project, and has requested his own management team to hold off on presenting options to him until the summer break rolls around.
The top priority, as he said on Thursday, is to stay with Williams, and, while his name has also been mooted as a potential at Aston Martin, if Alonso goes, or a long shot at Audi, should the German team somehow decide he’s a better long-term option than Nico Hulkenberg, his options are few – unless a Verstappen move does open a seat up at Red Bull.
His name has been linked to Red Bull in the recent past, with the driver himself revealing the team “didn’t want him” two years ago after having conversations with them – the speculation being that the Sainz and Verstappen camps did not see eye to eye, which was previously tacitly acknowledged by Helmut Marko when he spoke of a “toxic” atmosphere between them while teammates at Toro Rosso over a decade ago. But, if there are no longer any Verstappens at Red Bull…
As for Alonso, the Spaniard moved to hit out at the “borderline abuse” that he feels the criticisms of his team have been since the start of the year, and said he still wants to see Aston Martin win a title – whether he’s involved with it as a driver or otherwise.
The big decision for Alonso doesn’t appear to be Aston Martin or another team, even if Flavio Briatore is interested in getting the band back together at Alpine, but rather whether he stays in F1 or not: he spoke on Thursday about being interested in being the most “complete driver”, even going on to express a potential interest in the new Formula E car, as well as rallying and Dakar.
If Alonso does retire or move on from F1 again, this seat would still be an attractive one – regardless of the team’s current struggles. Sainz is an obvious contender, but so too is Sergio Perez.
The Mexican driver is understood to want to make a decision on his future by the summer break, with his reputation amongst teams having been restored since his return to the grid. Williams and Aston Martin are his main options aside from continuing with Cadillac and, with the 36-year-old eager to fight further up the grid, Perez is said to be open to a switch given that there are no guarantees of continued upward momentum with his current team, especially given that Colton Herta is very likely to get his FIA Super Licence to become an attractive prospect for Graeme Lowdon’s team in 2027.
As for Alpine, Franco Colapinto’s improved performances this year have meant the most likely scenario is that he will be kept on, with defacto team boss Flavio Briatore commenting on his confidence and talent starting to shine through.
But there have also been paddock whispers of a potential reuniting of Colapinto and Williams, should Vowles find himself needing a driver, while Alex Dunne’s name has also been spoken about in the same breath – there’s also the potential of current reserve driver Luke Browning getting his chance.
As for other new names, following on from Leonardo Fornaroli and Rafa Camara carrying out TPC outings, the most likely possible destination for either is Haas, should Ayao Komatsu decide to move on from Esteban Ocon. Fornaroli recently completed a TPC with Haas, while Camara is part of the Ferrari Driver Academy. Other potentials include former Alpine driver Jack Doohan, currently reserve for the team, or one of several Toyota-backed drivers, such as Ryo Hirakawa or Super Formula champion Sho Tsuboi, although, with both being in their early 30s, their age counts against them.
What is evident is that there is the potential for several bombshells to happen this year, but there is equally the chance teams and drivers will start plumping for the safe options open to them – this being the more likely scenario if both Verstappen and Alonso stick with their current teams.
Want to be the first to know exclusive information from the F1 paddock? Join our broadcast channel on WhatsApp to get the scoop on the latest developments from our team of accredited journalists.
You can also subscribe to the PlanetF1 YouTube channel for exclusive features, hear from our paddock journalists with stories from the heart of Formula 1 and much more!
Read next: Sky F1 presenter announces sudden exit ahead of Austrian Grand Prix
Originally published by Planet F1 —
Read Original Article